Wimbledon 2019: Women’s Preview and betting tips

FansBet previews the women's championships at Wimbledon, one of the most prestigious tennis tournaments in the world.

Form Labs

Key Stats 1968-2018

  • All 51 Open Era winners have been ranked for the tournament, whilst 40 of these have been ranked in the top four.
  • 13 of the last 19 winners since 2000 have been in the top eight seeds, with the exceptions being; Sharapova (13th), V. Williams (14th, 23rd), Bartoli (15th), Muguruza (14th) & Angelique Kerber (11th).
  • 17 of the last 19 have reached at least the 3rd round of Roland Garros, only exceptions being Venus Williams (2001) and Serena Williams (2012).

Wimbledon

Quarter 1

This looks like one of the toughest Slam quarters in recent times. Ash Barty heads the market having won the French Open and the recent Premier grass event in Birmingham last week, but with the other seeded players consisting of GarbineMuguruza, Donna Vekic, Belinda Bencic, Serena Williams, Julia Gorges, Carla Suarez Navarro and Angelique Kerber, it’ll take a serious effort to advance. The top seeded Aussie looks to have the most favourable draw of that bunch though, with Muguruza the hardest scheduled challenger in her route to the fourth round. The daunting prospects of the seven-time Wimbledon champion Williams, the defending champion Kerber or last years’ semi-finalist Gorges won’t be faced until at least the quarters.

Although the Championship winner is likely to progress from this section, unseeded players Alison Riske, Kaia KanepiKristyna Pliskova, Maria Sharapova and Tatjana Mariaare enough to put us off backing anyone in the outright and instead looks to provide an opportunity to go exploring for some value elsewhere.

Quarter 2

Kiki Bertens has been ticking along nicely this grass court swing having reached the final in Hertogenbosch and semis in Eastbourne, making up for her disappointing second round exit at the French Open. Birmingham semi-finalist Barbora Strycova looks her biggest threat, though she recently retired in the first round of Eastbourne having rolled her ankle, leaving question marks over her fitness and so it’s hard to not see the Dutch fourth seed into the last-16.

Competition at that stage will come in the shape of Elise Mertens or Qiang Wang, although the latter is yet to advance past the second round at SW19, including three first round exits from her four visits, so we’ll discount her. The Belgian has a better chance, having reached the quarters on this surface recently in Mallorca only losing to the eventual winner Sofia Kenin and she also reached the third round here last year.

Petra Kvitova is the top seed in this group of 16 players. However, she might not even turn up due to injury and even if she does play she’ll have to face the Eastbourne semi-finalist Ons Jabeur first up. Two of the Roland Garros semi-finalists Amanda Anisimova and Jo Konta reside in this section and while the American’s potential is still yet to be fully known, the Brit reached the semis here in London in 2017 and we wouldn’t be surprised to see her go well again at her home tournament. The main thing putting us off Konta though is the unfavourable draw of potentially playing Ekaterina Alexandrova in the second round and Sloane Stephens in the third, before even reaching the latter stages.

Quarter 3

Karolina Pliskova has been seriously impressive this season so far and thoroughly deserves her third seed status. Although the semis at Melbourne Park has been her best performance of the two Slams so far this year and the fourth round at Wimbledon her career best here, the draw looks to have completely opened up for her. She should be too good for the other seeded player Su-Wei Hsieh in her scheduled third round match, while neither Anett Kontaveit or Marketa Vondrousova should be difficult opponents for her given her current vein of form and the quarters should be the minimal requirement.

Of this section we give Elina Svitolina, Maria Sakkari(Nottingham QF), Petra Martic (Birmingham SF), Jennifer Brady (Nottingham SF) and Anasasija Sevastova (Mallorca SF) a fighting chance to make that quarter final spot with Pliskova. However, all of that will be in vain as we just can’t see any of them defeating the Czech player who currently holds second spot in the WTA race and is currently into the final at Eastbourne.

Wimbledon

Quarter 4

Simona Halep should pave a fairly easy path to the third round where the seeded player slated to play her is Darya KasatkinaHowever, the Russian has lost her only grass court match this swing making her W8-L12 so far this year and so instead Aliza Cornet looks the likeliest opponent to face the Romanian at that point, having recently made the quarters at Nottingham.

To play the winner of that it looks a little more exciting with Madison KeysVenus Williams and Aryna Sabalenka all fighting it out. The latter Belarusian reached the quarters at Eastbourne recently, but this has not been her year, not to mention she’ll face the older Williams sister in the second round. The 39-year-old veteran looked in good stead when reaching the quarters of the Birmingham Masters, but given her advancing years we’d rather steer clear. Her fellowAmerican  Keys looks to have the easiest draw of the three, not to mention she recently made the quarters in Paris.

The bottom-half of this quarter looks a tricky one to progress from with the seeded players consisting of Naomi Osaka, Caroline Wozniacki, Caroline Garcia and Sofia Kenin. The Japanese second seed looks to have her work cut out with Yulia Putinseva in the first round, who made the quarters in Birmingham, while should she make it through that another tricky encounter awaits her against Kenin. The American recently won her second title of the year in Mallorca and will be looking to go even better than her fourth round visit at the last Grand Slam.  Elsewhere it looks to be a straight shootout between Wozniacki and Garcia. The latter Frenchwomen comes here having won the Nature Valley Open and has the added bonus of winning the one and only head-to-head with the Dane over the last three years.

Overall

The abundance of quality in quarter one is certainly clear for everyone to see and although Barty looks to have the easiest draw of the seeded players, a semi-final for her is by no means a given. The best bet looks to be in backing Gorges to win this quarter, with that exceptional display she put on here last year and futhermore she finished runner-up in Birmingham just last week. At over eight times the price of the Aussie, she looks the value bet.

Bertens has been handed the favourable draw with what looked like her sole challenger Strycova recently rolling her ankle. The other top seed and slated to play her in the quarters would be Kvitova, but her wrist is playing up and so injuries could well play to Berten’s advantage.

Pliskova has been playing lights out tennis in Eastbourne winning 48 of her 62 sets played on her route to the final. That included a 6-1 6-2 thrashing of our second quarter selection Kiki Bertens in the semis. We can’t see anyone challenging her should she keep that sort of form up and we expect her to go better than her fourth round here last year.

In this final quarter we have to get behind Halep. The Romanian has reached at least the quarters in two of her last three visits here as well as the semis back in 2014 and she avoids any tricky opponents until at least the fourth round. Even if Osaka finds some form she has a W4-L1 career record against her and so she gets our backing.

Recommendations 

0.25pts: Julia Gorges To Win Outright EW at 51.00

0.5pts: Kiki Bertens To Win Outright at 19.00

1pt: Karolina Pliskova To Win Outright at 8.00

0.5pts: Simona Halep To Win Outright EW at 17.00

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