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Which player could help you win a share of£25,000

Our fantasy football expert analyses this week's top tips

Daniel Victory

Success in the heavily-reduced slate that was Gameweek 31 eventually boiled down to whether or not you captained Mohamed Salah. In a season that has seen the Egyptian star for both the Reds and fantasy managers worldwide, he soared to new heights last Saturday with a stunning 29 point performance after scoring 4 times and producing an assist against Watford. With 58 points in the bag from our captain, along with 9 from Junior Stanislas, 7 from Roberto Firmino and 6 a-piece from Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Virgil van Dijk and Patrick van Aanholt, we totalled 104 points. Gameweek 32 returns with a full complement of fixtures this weekend, so read on as we analyse the clean sheet and anytime goalscorer markets to help you with those all-important captaincy, transfer and squad selection decisions…

This weeks edition of Bookies Advantage will be slightly different, as we focus on FanBet’s massive£25 000 GTD fantasy tournament. There will be at least£10 000 to the winner and the scoring system is almost identical to FPL.

Best of all: if you sign up through FansBet now, you can get a free entry to the tournament! (first 3000 entries are free*)

Defensive odds

Team

Best clean sheet odds

Implied chance of a clean sheet

Man Utd

1.57

64%

Man City

2.05

49%

Newcastle

2.15

47%

Arsenal

2.2

45%

Liverpool

2.3

43%

West Brom

2.74

36%

Chelsea

2.8

36%

Burnley

2.88

35%

Leicester

2.97

34%

Southampton

3.05

33%

Brighton

3.1

32%

West Ham

3.2

31%

Watford

3.35

30%

Tottenham

3.75

27%

Bournemouth

3.9

26%

Huddersfield

4.35

23%

Crystal Palace

8.5

12%

Everton

9.2

11%

Stoke

10.5

10%

Swansea

10.5

10%

A home game against Swansea sees Manchester United installed as the bookies’ favourites to keep a clean sheet, with a 64% chance of doing so. This is no surprise given the league’s meanest home defence – just 7 goals conceded at Old Trafford this term – hosts the third poorest away attack – the Swans have scored 10 goals in 15 games on their travels. Chris Smalling offers value at£5.5m having started the last 8 for the Red Devils, while he also scored against Crystal Palace back in Gameweek 29, so he makes our starting XI.

United’s crosstown rivals City (49%) rank second when they travel to Everton on Saturday evening. Pep Guardiola’s side are rapidly closing in on the Premier League title, and the fact that they have the strongest away defence in the top flight, having conceded just 10 goals on the road, is one of the factors underpinning their success. The Citizens have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 away games, and over the last 10 gameweeks Ederson (£5.5m) has also saved 2 penalties, which sees the Brazilian installed as our goalkeeper for Gameweek 32.

Newcastle (47%) and Arsenal (45%) complete the top four defensive prospects this weekend. The Toon Army welcome Huddersfield to St James’s Park, where Rafa’s men have recorded back-to-back shutouts, whilst the Terriers have failed to score in each of their last 3 games. Arsenal, meanwhile, kept their first clean sheet in 12 attempts against Watford last time out and entertain a Stoke City side that have scored just twice in their last 5 on the road. We opt for a pair of goalscoring defenders here in the form of Jamaal Lascelles (£4.5m) and Shkodran Mustafi (£5.5m). Both have scored 3 Premier League goals this season, with their most recent strikes coming in Gameweek 25 at home to Burnley and in Gameweek 30 at home to Watford respectively.

On the bench, Rob Elliott (£4.0m – 47%) is highly unlikely to see gametime at home to Huddersfield but his rock-bottom price is important for the makeup of our squad. Trent Alexander-Arnold (£4.5 – 43%), however, now looks like a more secure route into the Liverpool defence following an injury to Joe Gomez. The young right-back travels to London to tackle Crystal Palace on Saturday lunchtime. Adrian Mariappa (£4.0m – 30%) hosts Bournemouth and offers us the cheapest playing defensive option in the game having started each of the last 7 for the Hornets.

With a staggering£25k on the line this gameweek at FansBet, it could be worth punting on a few cheeky differentials in order to give yourself the best chance of winning, so with that in mind, we pick out a few defensive differentials:

If you are going to double-up on any defence this weekend, Manchester United look like the safest option. Eric Bailly (£6.0m – 64%) is back from injury and produced a monster 15-point haul against Swansea in the reverse fixture back in August, with a clean sheet, a goal and 3 bonus points. A repeat would certainly be handy this Saturday.

Jose Holebas (£5.0m – 30%) offers a good mix of attacking and clean sheet potential. Watford have really tightened up at home since Javi Gracia took the reins, conceding just once in 3 games at Vicarage Road. The Greek international takes corners for the Hornets and already has a trio of assists to his name this term.

A trip to The Hawthorns, with West Brom in freefall under Alan Pardew, should pose few problems for the second best away defence in the top flight – Burnley have conceded just 14 goals in 15 games on the road, a record bettered only by Manchester City. Since reclaiming the right-back spot from Phil Bardsley 5 games ago, Matt Lowton (£4.5m – 35%) has provided 2 assists and also claimed 2 bonus points.

Attacking odds

Player

Best anytime goalscorer odds

Implied chance of scoring

Mohamed Salah

1.75

57%

Sergio Aguero

1.75

57%

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

1.75

57%

Romelu Lukaku

1.82

55%

Gabriel Jesus

1.89

53%

Raheem Sterling

2.23

45%

Roberto Firmino

2.25

44%

Sadio Mane

2.4

42%

Henrikh Mkhitaryan

2.4

42%

Alexis Sanchez

2.4

42%

Leroy Sane

2.6

38%

Jesse Lingard

2.62

38%

Dwight Gayle

2.7

37%

Jamie Vardy

2.75

36%

Olivier Giroud

2.8

36%

Troy Deeney

2.88

35%

Eden Hazard

2.88

35%

Mesut Ozil

2.88

35%

Callum Wilson

3

33%

Alvaro Morata

3

33%

Glenn Murray

3.1

32%

Chris Wood

3.2

31%

Paul Pogba

3.25

31%

Salomon Rondon

3.3

30%

Richarlison

3.3

30%

Chicharito

3.3

30%

Manolo Gabbiadini

3.3

30%

Aaron Ramsey

3.4

29%

Marko Arnautovic

3.4

29%

Jay Rodriguez

3.5

29%

Son Heung-Min

3.5

29%

Son Heung-Min

3.5

29%

Sam Vokes

3.55

28%

Joshua King

3.6

28%

Kevin de Bruyne

3.6

28%

Guido Carrillo

3.6

28%

Christian Benteke

3.75

27%

Willian

3.75

27%

Ashley Barnes

3.8

26%

Steve Mounie

3.9

26%

David Silva

4

25%

Riyad Mahrez

4.33

23%

Cenk Tosun

4.5

22%

Junior Stanislas

4.5

22%

Will Hughes

4.6

22%

Dele Alli

4.6

22%

Pascal Gross

4.7

21%

Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting

4.8

21%

Wilfried Zaha

4.8

21%

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain

5

20%

Christian Eriksen

5

20%

Kenedy

5.2

19%

Wayne Rooney

5.5

18%

Xherdan Shaqiri

5.6

18%

Theo Walcott

6

17%

Alex Pritchard

6.25

16%

Marc Albrighton

7

14%

Luka Milivojevic

7.5

13%

Joe Allen

7.5

13%

Andy King

18

6%

 

For the first time this season, a trio of players share top spot on the bookies’ attacking ladder; Mohamed Salah, Sergio Aguero and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who all have a 57% chance of scoring this weekend according to the odds compilers. However, with Aguero an injury doubt, we are forced to overlook the Argentine for our squad. Due to his blistering form, Salah (£9.0m) takes our captain’s armband ahead of Aubameyang. The Egyptian international has scored 10 goals and provided 3 assists for the Reds over his last 7 games, while he was also on target for his country against Portugal on Friday night. A trip to Crystal Palace, who have kept just a single clean sheet in their last 8, offers Salah the opportunity to continue his red-hot streak.

Aubameyang (£10.5m), who has chalked up 3 goals and an assist in the Premier League since his January move from Dortmund, welcomes Stoke to The Emirates on Sunday. Paul Lambert’s men have the second-worst away defence in the top flight, having been breached 33 times in 15 games, so the Gabon star could well be in line to profit this weekend.

Romelu Lukaku (55%) and Dwight Gayle (37%) complete our forward line for Gameweek 32. United’s Belgian striker is another player in great form, with 9 goals and 2 assists in his last 10 games for club and country. A home game against Swansea, who have conceded an average of 2 goals per game lately on their travels, holds promise. Gayle, meanwhile, has 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 for Newcastle, and hosts a Huddersfield side that have been breached at least twice in 4 of their last 5 on the road.

Apart from the aforementioned Aguero, we also forgo the services of his Manchester City teammate Gabriel Jesus due to a lack of starting security, while Roberto Firmino proves too expensive for us to acquire this time round.

With City strikers off our radar due to concerns over rotation and minutes, we double up on their attack in the shape of Raheem Sterling (£8.0m – 45%) and Leroy Sane (£8.5m – 38%). Sterling returned injury in Gameweek 30 to register an assist against Stoke and take his tally to 15 goals and 11 assists in the Premier League this term – the most productive season of his career. Sane, meanwhile, is also enjoying a solid campaign with 8 goals and 11 assists. A win at Everton, who have a solitary clean sheet in their last 11 matches, would mean Pep’s side can wrap up the title in Gameweek 33 against Manchester United – motivation, if ever it was needed.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan (£8.0m – 42%) completes our starting XI and forms part of an Arsenal attacking double up for our side. The Armenian schemer has produced a goal, 4 assists and 4 bonus points in his 3 home games since his January move, so the porous travelling Stoke defence should offer him more opportunities for points this Sunday. Andy King (£4.5m – 6%) takes the first spot on our subs bench as the current uber-budget midfielder of choice for fantasy managers.

In midfield, the bookies also rate Sadio Mane and Alexis Sanchez, but, unfortunately, our budget does not stretch far enough to acquire either this weekend.

And once again, with£25k up for grabs and a free entry for those quick enough to register, this could be the week where it really pays to go against the grain, so let’s take a look at a few attacking differentials, covering the whole price spectrum, for Gameweek 32;

We start with Alexis Sanchez (£12.0m), who has failed to hit the lofty heights he scaled last season, but a home game against Swansea, who conceded 4 at Brighton as recently as Gameweek 28, could provide the Chilean with the opportunity to significantly add to the goal and assist he has chalked up since joining the Red Devils. With confidence in Sanchez across the fantasy community at an all-time low, could he punish the masses and rocket you towards the grand prize this weekend? One thing is for sure: Sanchez has been, and always has the potential to be, fantasy royalty.

In the mid-price bracket, Marko Arnautovic (£7.5m) is an intriguing option. The Austrian has struggled of late with a few injuries, but his last 10 starts for the Hammers have seen him produce 6 goals and 4 assists, with 2 double-digit hauls in that spell. He is tasked with a home clash against Southampton, and former manager Mark Hughes, this Saturday and will go into the game in good form, having bagged 3 goals in 2 games for his country over the international break.

For those in need of a bargain to free up funds, Kenedy (£5.0m) could fit the bill. On loan at Newcastle from Chelsea, the Brazilian winger scored twice to rack up a Gameweek 30 high score of 16 points against Southampton. This weekend he welcomes Huddersfield to St James’s Park, who are without a clean sheet on their travels since September (12 league games).

Here’s our ‘dream team’ for this week’s fantasy pics. 

Can you pick a better team? Join our FantasyBet league now and you could win a share of£25,000

By Daniel Victory follow him on Twitter @Victory_Dan

 

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