The Open’s return to Carnoustie certainly hasn’t disappointed over the last few days, with some incredible golf being played on the north sea coast in Scotland.
We’ve had a bit of everything over the last three days, but the one typically reliable element that usually dictates links golf on our shores, that being the wind, has yet to really show itself.
We’ve yet to see hats, umbrellas or even balls being affected by the infamous gales of north east Scotland, but with the forecast set to howl a little during Sunday’s final round, we might well have a Carnoustie that slightly resembles the almost unplayable beast that saw nobody even close to breaking par after 72-holes in back in 1999.
In regards to betting, it’s worth keeping that in mind in search for some late value ahead of the final groups going out in the afternoon.
FansBet are paying 1/5 odds each way on a top four finish, and with Kevin Chappell occupying fourth place on his own at 7-under par, just two shots behind the leading American trio of Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele and Kevin Kisner, there is scope to look at some of the other players who can post a number early on with conditions looking likely to deteriorate.
Rickie Fowler’s third round was on course to have him vying for one of the final groups until a treble-bogey eight on the par-5 sixth hole put paid to the world number 7’s chances of winning the Claret Jug. But six shots back of Chappell in fourth and a tee time some three hours before the leaders set off, means 300/1 to win, 60/1 to place in the top four, could be tempting.
In my opinion, I think those within 5 shots of the lead still have a chance regardless of the conditions. Should the wind get up and cause some disruption, then that will only bring more players into the reckoning. If Carnoustie was to play like it did on Saturday, then a low round, such as Justin Rose’s 64 is more than doable.
And it’s former US Open champion Rose who I think could steal a march on the leaders given his immense performance since birdieing the 18th just to make the cut on Friday. The Olympic gold medallist is just three strokes behind Chappell in fourth and at 33/1 to win (just better than 13/2 for top-4) provides some interest for a man who shot a flawless 7-under par round of the day on Saturday.