FansBet NFL expert John Arnette returns for week 10 of the NFL with his enhanced acca preview and betting tips for what promises to be another round of high scoring action. Check out John’s selections below and back the enhanced odds!
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars at 1.66
The Colts have quietly begun to play good football, and it started before their current 2-game winning streak, particularly on the offensive side of the ball: they’ve now scored 24 points or more in five consecutive games, averaging 34.2 ppg in that span. Andrew Luck looks like himself again, and the emergence of second-year tailback Marlon Mack, who missed four games earlier this season with a hamstring injury, has provided some much-needed balance.
Jacksonville still has one of the NFL’s best defenses, but the unit has not been nearly as dominant as it was in 2017, and the offense is positively dysfunctional—quarterback Blake Bortles has been unwatchably bad at times and was benched in favor of journeyman Cody Kessler two games ago before being re-inserted into the lineup, star running back Leonard Fournette is still sidelined by injury (a recurring theme in Fournette’s brief career), and the receiving corps is among the NFL’s worst. The Jags are averaging just 16.8 points per game, which is fewer than every team in the league with the exception of Buffalo and Arizona. Plus, there’s a dysfunctional, backbiting atmosphere around the team that, in my opinion, makes a rally-the-troops, bounce-back performance less likely. Coming off a bye, look for the Colts to take care of business on their home field.
Washington Redskins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat the Washington Redskins at 1.64
The Bucs burned me last week, as their porous defense was trampled by Cam Newton and the Panthers to the tune of 42 points and 407 total yards. But I’m back up on the horse, as I really believe this is a great spot for them— a home game against a Washington team with a punchless offense.
The Redskins have now scored fewer than 24 points in five straight games, and last week they could manage just 14 points against an Atlanta defense that has been nearly as bad as Tampa’s this season (the teams rank 28th and 29th, respectively, in total yards allowed). And if things weren’t already bad enough, the offense lost three starters to injury last week— two linemen and receiver Paul Richardson, all of whom will miss the remainder of the season. For all of Tampa’s faults on defense, they have one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, a unit that has produced 26 points or more in 7 of the team’s 8 games thus far.
It’s an offense that has been at its best when Ryan Fitzpatrick has been under center, and FitzMagic gets the start again on Sunday, so we can expect the terrific Tampa receiving corps to terrorize a Washington secondary that surrendered 350 passing yards and 4 touchdowns last week. I just can’t envision a Redskins offense that has been stuck in the mud for weeks and is now weakened from a personnel perspective keeping pace in this one. Bucs on the moneyline is the right play.
Seattle Seahawks @ LA Rams
L.A. Rams -10 v Seattle Seahawks at 1.92
The Rams finally tasted defeat last week, falling to the New Orleans Saints 45-35 in a game that lived up to its billing. The secondary has definitely been exposed a bit in recent weeks, and it figures to be a point of vulnerability going forward— at least until Aqib Talib gets back. But it’s still a talented defense overall, especially up front, where a dominant line led by Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Aaron Donald can make life miserable for opposing QBs and generate negative plays in the running game. Seattle has been the most run-heavy team in the league over the past six weeks, so this won’t be a game where the L.A. secondary is tested like it was against New Orleans or Green Bay.
When these teams met back in Week 5, for instance, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson attempted only 21 passes and finished the game with fewer than 200 yards through the air. But the ‘Hawks hung tough in that game before eventually losing a 33-31 thriller, so some may be a bit squeamish about laying a 10-point number here. I sense a blowout coming, however— the Rams offense is just so, so explosive, leading the NFL in yards per game and ranking third in points scored (33.2 ppg). Seattle, on the other hand, ranks 26th in total offense, and has a defense that is surrendering 4.8 yards per rush, worse than all but three teams in the league. Look for Todd Gurley to have a monster game here as the Rams get back on track with a resounding home win.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet – Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Recommendation: Detroit +6.5 at 1.91
After years of irrelevance the Bears are finally back in the playoff picture, as they currently lead the NFC North at 5-3. And after winning their last two games by 46 combined points, they’re riding a wave of public enthusiasm unseen since the Lovie Smith days, when an opportunistic defense and a Hall of Fame return man carried the team all the way to the Super Bowl. But is it time to Sell High with this team? Lest we forget, Chicago’s last two wins have come against the Jets and Bills, two of the NFL’s very worst teams, led by two of the league’s worst starting QBs.
The Lions, for all their faults, will have the edge at quarterback in this game, as Matt Stafford is far more accomplished than Mitchell Trubisky, who I believe is sort of the hidden weak spot of this Chicago team. And maybe the term “hidden” is a bit silly when you’re talking about a team’s starting QB, but Trubisky simply hasn’t been a major factor when the Bears have been at their best— last week, for instance, he was 12/20 for 135 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in the rout of Buffalo, and it was the same story in the Jets game, and the Seahawks game earlier this year… really, in every one of Chicago’s wins with the exception of the Tampa game. Trubisky is erratic and inaccurate when forced to make plays from the pocket, and this week he’ll be facing a Detroit secondary that ranks 4th in the NFL against the pass, surrendering just 215 yards per game through the air, and has allowed just 10 passing touchdowns this season, the third-best mark in the league.
So we can expect the Bears to be fairly conservative on offense here, leaning heavily on running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen and limiting Trubisky’s exposure. That means it’ll be up to the defense to hold down a Lions offense that can be quite explosive, and though the Chicago defense has been great statistically, I’m not sure the unit is quite as good as the numbers would indicate, especially in the secondary. As previously mentioned, the Bears faced two of the worst QBs in the NFL in their last two games, but in the previous two— both losses— they surrendered 657 combined passing yards and 6 passing TDs. And while there’s no shame in giving up 277 yards and 3 TDs to Tom Brady, as Chicago did back in Week 7, allowing Brock Osweiler to put up 380 yards in 3 TDs in Week 6 is… concerning, to say the least. If the Lions can figure out the pass-protection issues that plagued them in their loss to Minnesota last week, Stafford can do some damage down the field in this game. And if that happens, will Mitch Trubisky be forced out of his comfort zone and asked to make plays with his arm, from the pocket? That’s the blueprint for success for Detroit here, and I don’t think it’s unrealistic. I view this game as a prime Buy Low/Sell High opportunity— the Lions could very well pull out a victory and are a nice value as 6.5-point dogs.
Fansbet are committed to giving 50 per cent of their net profits back to fans. To find out more about how they do it, click here!
And is that is not enough check out our Fan Boosts here. The best odds and an unrivalled range of special bets!
Fansbet, about Fans, by fans, for fans.
*odds subject to change.