Despite Arsenal holding a 2-0 advantage following their Europa League quarterfinal first leg win over Napoli, the hosts will still have some hope they can overcome the deficit based on the poor away form of the Gunners. Form Labs return with their betting preview and tips for the second leg clash and as ever we have plenty of value for the game in our FanBoosts section with our selection of enhanced odds.
Arsenal’s Struggles On The Road
Arsenal have won five of their last six matches as they only conceded the single goal, though all but one of these victories came at the Emirates and on the road, they’re just W3-D3-L7 since the start of December – including five defeats from their last eight.
Even their win at Watford on Monday night can be put down to some good fortune as Ben Foster made an absolute howler after 10 minutes to gift Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang the only goal of the game, while Troy Deeney got himself needlessly sent off a minute later, though the Hornets still enjoyed the better chances over the next 80 minutes or so and the Gunners will just be relieved more than exuberant.
Napoli Dominant At Home
Napoli aren’t the best of travellers either, although they’re a far less dismal W4-D3-L5 since Christmas, but they’re rarely beaten at the Stadium San Paolo where they’re W16-D5-L1 this season, with only Juve managing that feat this term.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side beat Liverpool and drew with PSG here in the group stages, while they downed an impressive Salzburg outfit 3-0 in the previous round on home turf, so we expect them to make Arsenal work hard for progression.
Napoli v Arsenal Betting Tips
The hosts didn’t rotate much for their weekend clash with basement dwellers Chievo, but they’ve had an extra day to prepare for the second leg and it’s not as though Unai Emery made wholesale changes to his side at Watford either.
Moreover, English teams are a poor W3-D4-L11 on the road to Italian sides in Europe’s second-tier tournaments since 2001/02, with eight of these losses by at least two clear goals, while in the knockout rounds alone it’s seven defeats from nine matches over this period.
Arsenal will also feel threatened by the record of teams that have lost 2-0 away in the first leg of a Europa League tie, as they’re W12-D7-L3 in the return legs since 2010/11.
That includes victories in all five since 2016/17, while the three defeats saw the visitors in the second leg significantly stronger than their hosts, which won’t be the case here. Arsenal may end up going through anyway should they net an away goal, though we expect Napoli to win over the course of 90 minutes regardless of who makes the semi-finals.
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*odds subject to change.