Fourth v fifth in Serie A is one to watch this weekend as Lazio host a resurgent AC Milan. With just a point separating the two teams, keeping pace with Inter Milan and Napoli will leave both teams looking for the valuable three points. Form Labs previews the much anticipated clash with their betting tips and if you are looking for some more value from across Europe’s big leagues then you have to check out our traders selection of enhanced odds!
AC Milan Defensive Injuries
This fixture has produced goals in recent times with half of the eight league encounters since 2014/15 featuring more than three goals, including three of four at the Stadio Olimpico. With Milan centre-backs Alessio Romagnoli and Mateo Musacchio both out with injuries, as well as the main cover for that area in Mattia Caldara, Gennaro Gattuso has a tough job on his hand to keep his backline solid.
That leaves 32-year-old Cristian Zapata as the most senior option available at the heart of their defence, but since arriving at Milan in 2013, their win percentage drops from 49% to 31% when he’s featured in the starting XI. In fact, against top-six finishers and the current top six, the Rossoneri are just W1-D8-L13 over this period when Zapata starts, with the sole triumph over Lazio on the opening day of the 2014/15 season.
Past History Suggests Goals
No team has witnessed as many as the 170 goals that have been scored in Lazio’s matches since the start of last term (average of 3.4 goals per game), with Sampdoria the closest as their fixtures over this period have seen 147 goals, while Milan are sixth on that list with 135 (2.7 gpg). Indeed, six of Lazio’s last eight matches hosting top-six sides have seen at least three goals, including both fixtures this term. Given the high-scoring nature of this fixture, the issues with personnel at the back for Milan as well as the attacking brand of football Lazio employ under Simone Inzaghi, Over 2.5 Goals is a healthy price.
However, despite Gattuso’s depleted options, we’d avoid the match outcome in this clash as Lazio have lost all four encounters with fellow top-six sides this term and shipped an average of 2.5 goals per game across these, while stretching into last season that becomes nine defeats from 11 such winless games as they conceded at least twice in eight of those losses.
Lazio v AC Milan Betting Tips
With an entertaining fixture on the cards, the goalscorer markets offer some betting potential. Ciro Immobile inevitably leads the way with seven goals in his last seven starts for Lazio and bagged himself a hat-trick and an assist over a span of 11 minutes in a 4-1 win in this fixture last term. He’s proven himself a consistent goalscorer at this level since signing for Lazio in the summer of 2016, with 60 goals in 81 appearances in total, and with Milan’s problem’s at the back, he’s near banker material to register on the board at some stage.
Gonzalo Higuain had a nightmare against his former club Juve as he first missed a tame penalty, the latest in a string of high-profile spot-kicks that he’s wasted, before the red midst then descended upon the Argentine as he reacted in rage to his initial yellow card for a challenge on Medhi Benatia.
That paves the way for Patrick Cutrone to lay down a marker as a potential long-term striker for the Rossoneri, and he’s largely impressed when given a chance. The 20-year-old striker reached double figures in Serie A last term despite limited action, while he’s netted three times in 170 minutes of action in the Europa League this term where he’s been afford greater opportunities, and given his recent Golden boy nomination, he’ll be out to prove a point.
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*odds subject to change