John Deere Classic: Stricker begins quadrouple quest in Illinois

Steve Stricker will skip the U.S. Senior Open to return to the tournament he won three years in a row from 2009 to 2011.

To make matters more interesting, There are 15 golfers who are already eligible for The Open Championship set to play at TPC Deere Run.

Meanwhile, the final spot in the Super Season’s final major will go to a golfer in the top five at the John Deere not already qualified.

Course/Field

Course: TPC Deere Run
Length: 7258 yards (Par 71)
Greens: Bentgrass
Opened: 2000
Architect: D. A. Weibring

As expected, the week before a major on a different continent the field is not the strongest with only five players in the world’s top 50 showing up in Illinois this week.

With past winners at TPC Deere Run including Jordan Spieth (2x), Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker (3x) it’s clear what’s important here and its wedge play and a hot putter.

Both the fairways and greens are some of the easiest to hit on tour, with an over 70% success rate in both categories. All three of the par 5s are reachable by most in the field.

Seven of the ten par 4s clocks in at between 350-450 yards which, as mentioned, leads to a lot of wedges and short irons into some greens right around tour average in size.

Even the par 3s are straight forward with only one of the four playing over par. The winning score is usually around -20.

Here are some of the things I will be looking at/for:

Strokes gained approach
Strokes gained putting
Par 5 scoring
Proximity 125-175 yards
Fairways gained

Betting history

2019-20 season

Wagered: +35.61 units
ROI: 121%

2020-21 season

Wagered: 294 units
Won: 524.92 units
Result: 230.92 units

Outright winners

Waste Management: Brooks Koepka 41-1, Genesis Invitational: Max Homa 56-1, The Players Championship: Justin Thomas 19-1, Valero Texas Open: Jordan Spieth 11-1, Palmetto Championship: Garrick Higgo 36-1

Picks

Aaron Wise 41.00
3pts EW (1/4 the odds 5 places)

The talented American still stands with his one win from The Byron Nelson a couple of years ago but after a terrible last season, he seems to have figured it out as of late.

His last five starts have led to two top 10s and a T17 at the PGA Championship which was is best Major performance to date.

He should be the class of this terrible field and the stats also hints at that where he ranks in the top 25 in approach, around the green, off the tee, par 5 scoring and proximity from 150-175 yards.

As always it comes down to his putter which is unstable but at least bent is his preferred surface and if his putter does show up, he should be right there come Sunday.

Hank Lebioda @ 61.00
3pts EW (1/4 the odds 5 places)

While far from the name or the spectacular game as some of his contemporary twenty-something Lebioda really have started to figuring it out and is trending toward a victory.

Since Valspar he has six straight made cuts and in his last two starts, he has produced his two best finishes in non-opposite field events with T5 at the Travelers and a T4 last week in Detroit.

That he is one of the best putters on tour and that his lack of distance should be mitigated for the third week in a row also speaks to this being a possible breakthrough spot for the Floridian.