The curtain comes down on the Autumn International Series with some great matches between the North and South. Our FansBet enhanced acca for the final week sees our traders tip the Scots to beat the Pumas, England to beat old rivals Australia and for the Welsh to make it five wins from their last six against the Springboks. Form Labs previews the three games with their betting tips and don’t forget to take advantage of our enhanced acca for the final round of games.
Scotland v Argentina Betting Tips
Scotland make eight changes to the side that lost to South Africa last weekend, with six of these coming in the pack. Gregor Townsend looks to be trying a few different options against Argentina this weekend with the most noticeable being Finn Russell moving out to inside-centre as Adam Hastings fills in at stand-off.
Mario Ledesma’s men consistently provide their supporters with a spectacle, but they haven’t been delivering on the results front. A record of six losses from his eight games in charge is disappointing, especially since one of those victories was against a transitioning South African side while the other was their first victory on Australian soil for 35 years, which speaks more for how poor the hosts were than the abilities of the Pumas. Indeed, this Argentinian side haven’t kicked-on since reaching the Semi-Finals of the 2015 World Cup, with a record of W9-D0-L28 from their 37 matches. Although that record is probably tainted by the quality of Southern Hemisphere opposition, five of the victories came against Italy (twice), Chile, Japan and Georgia.
Scotland v South Africa Highlights
The Scots have won 10 of their last 12 on home turf as nine of these came against the current top-10 ranked sides in the world. Only a try saving tackle stopped them from turning over New Zealand and last week they went down to the Boks by just six points. What’s more, they’ve won each of their four meetings with the Pumas since 2014, while the visitors have lost all of their last 13 games against Six Nations sides (excluding Italy), so we don’t give them much hope.
Scotland put eight tries past the Wallabies here last year and they average over four tries per game in Townsend’s seven matches at Murrayfield. With that in mind, we fancy Huw Jones to get over the whitewash. He has scored in five in his last six starts here, touching down a total of six times and is the standout player for us in this backline.
Huw Jones Anytime Tryscorer at 2.75
England v Australia Betting Tips
Eddie Jones prepares to take on another of his old teams this Saturday after an unconvincingly victory over Japan last week. It is looking much more prosperous now in the England camp than it did earlier this year, with three wins from their last four (only losing to New Zealand) compared to a run of six defeats from seven matches back in June.
Australia have been up to their usual pre-match mind games this week having declared all of David Pocock, Israel Folau and Bernard Foley as potential absentees. Foley and Folau start however Pocock does miss out, as does Matt Toomua who pushes Bernard Foley to inside centre leaving no space in the squad for Kurtley Beale. Michael Cheika’s men will be desperate for victory with only four wins from their last 14 matches, including a woeful two of seven on the road.
Indeed, those two away victories came when visiting Argentina and Italy who are the weakest nations form their respective top tier competitions – The Rugby Championship and The Six Nations. If we exclude those two, then the Wallabies record reads W6-D1-L15 from their 22 road games to Tier One nations under Cheika, including defeats in last five with three were by more than 20 points.
Italy v Australia Highlights
The Red Roses have dominated the last five meetings with the Aussies, winning all of them as three of these came on their successful 2016 tour Down under. Indeed, four of those victories were by more than 10 points with the most recent finishing 30-6 last year as they scored an average of over three tries per game and we are yet to be convinced that the visitors can turn that around. That looks even less likely when you take into account Jones’ record at Twickenham, with 16 wins from his 18 matches as only the top two teams in the world New Zealand and Ireland could overcome them.
We do expect England to put points on this Australian side but at a handicap of -7.5 points we would rather stick to the tryscorer markets. Jonny May has put his name amongst the best wingers in the world on current form and with seven tries from his last nine matches for his country, it doesn’t surprise us. What’s more, all of those games came against the current top-eight sides in the world, making it even more impressive as he was rested last weekend against Japan. We’ll also have a small wager on Dylan Hartley to touchdown last. He has scored the hosts’ last try of the game in both their last two matches and with him making his second consecutive cameo from the bench, that driving maul could work out for him again in the dying minutes.
1pt: Jonny May Anytime Tryscorer at 2.4
0.5pt: Dylan Hartley Last Tryscorer at 23
Wales v South Africa Betting Tips
This test match is certainly more than just a season ender with the winner likely to make a huge psychological leap forward for the World Cup. Wales have been forced to make one change to their side that overcame Australia a fortnight ago as Liam Williams comes in for the injured Leigh Halfpenny. They have been slowly gaining momentum this year with eight wins on the bounce, which is the first time they have managed that feat since 2005 and the longest winning sequence under Warren Gatland. It’ll take a serious performance to end that, while at the Principality Stadium they have 18 wins from their last 22 matches, including each of their last seven.
Rassie Erasmus’ men won’t make life easy for the hosts as they travel to Cardiff with two big wins over France and Scotland, while a controversial stoppage time decision saw them come up one point short at Twickenham. They name an unchanged starting team for the first time this season and with the return of Eben Etzebeth to the bench, they mean business.
Gatland’s men endured at torrid time against the ‘Big Three’ Southern Hemisphere sides from 2008 to 2013 in the Autumn internationals, losing 12 of their 13 matches. However, they have since turned that record around with four wins from their last nine (including all three matches against South Africa), although three of those victories were by just six points. The Springboks arguably have an even worse record than their hosts in the end-of-season tests.
They have just four wins from their last 11 Autumn internationals as their only successes came against the weaker sides France (twice), Italy and Scotland, while seven of them were separated by just six points. That includes a defeat in Italy ending the Azzurri’s 14-game losing streak against top tier opposition back in 2016. However, we expect this to go down to the wire given that when South Africa, Australia and New Zealand have played against the Six Nations sides (excluding Italy) this Autumn, each of the six tests have been decided by fewer than eight points.
Wales have crossed the whitewash first in 16 of their 20 home matches when a try has been scored since the start of the 2015 World Cup. Indeed, 12 of those 15 first tryscorers (excluding penalty tries) have been amongst the backs with five of the last seven being an outside-back, and so we like the chances of either Liam Williams or George North. The former has more domestic leagues tries (6 versus 3) as well as more recent international tries and so he’s our pick at a bigger price.
Liam Williams first Tryscorer at 12.0
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*odds subject to change.