This is one of the two ATP 500 grass events in the build up to Wimbledon. It usually gives a good gauge as to who is going to perform well at the token event a few weeks later, with at least one of the finalists here going on to reach the semis or better at Wimbledon in 16 of the last 20 seasons. In fact, the winner alone of Queens has made the quarters at SW19 on 14 occasions over that period, as well as the semis in 12, while recently there’s been some exceptional results which proves the importance of going deep this week. Form Labs bring you their betting preview and tips for the traditional Wimbledon warm-up tournament.
The top seed has an exceptional record at this competition, winning three of the four tournaments since becoming an ATP 500 event in 2015, while going back to 2002, the top rank has reached at least the quarters in 15 of the 17 tournaments. Moreover, 30 of the 40 finalists here have been from within the top-six seeds, although three of those exceptions had reached a Queens final previously (Lleyton Hewitt, Feliciano Lopez & Novak Djokovic).
The seeds are as follows:
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Kevin Anderson
- Juan Martin Del Potro
- Daniil Medvedev
- Marin Cilic
- Milos Raonic
- Stan Wawrinka
- Felix Auger-Aliassime
The top-half of the draw looks very competitive with Stefanos Tsitsipas (7/1) and Kyle Edmund (33/1) facing off in the first round, while this group of eight player bidding to reach a spot in the semis also includes Jeremy Chardy (50/1) – who won Surbiton challenger on grass last year, was runner-up at Rosmalen & reached the semis here – Nick Kyrgios (12/1), Adrian Mannarino (66/1)- winner of Rosmalen last week – Gregor Dimitrov (14/1) and Felix Auger Aliassime (17/1). If we were to pick anyone at the prices, we’d side with either Frenchmen Chardy or Mannarino. The latter played a grueling final just yesterday though, while although the former looks to be over his back problem, all eight of these players look capable of emerging victorious and so the value looks to be elsewhere.
Whoever makes it to that semi will likely have to face either Juan Martin Del Potro or Milos Raonic. However, the latter pulled out of his Stuttgart last-four tie against Auger-Aliassime last week and looks worth avoiding. That may well open the draw up for Alex De Minaur who reached the third round at Wimbledon last year, while he’s proven some form on grass already this year in reaching the quarters in the Netherlands last week. That’ll likely see him through to quarters should Raonic not be on his ‘A game’, where he could face off against his 2016 junior Wimbledon final opponent Denis Shapovalov or Del Po. The Argentinian is the much more likely winner there and looked to have gained some much-needed match fitness in Paris when making the fourth round and he gets our backing from the top-half of the draw with a grass record of W30-L11 since 2011.
The defending champion Marin Cilic has an exceptional W29-L9 record at Queens and two titles to his name and can be expected to go well in the easier half of the draw. He faces Christian Garin first up who although reached the quarters at Rosmalen, those were his first ever main draw victories on this surface and so we expect the Croat to get off to a good start. A scheduled second round against Diego Schwartzman, who’s W1-L8 in his career on grass, is hardly intimidating, while the other seeds in this clearly much weaker bottom half of the draw include Kevin Anderson, Stan Wawrinka and Daniil Medvedev. The South African goes well on this surface but hasn’t been seen since March due to injury, Wawrinka doesn’t excel on grass (W29-L29 careers record) and finally Medvedev has lost each of his last five matches as he’s struggled to recover from his groin injury.
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*odds subject to change.